{
  "chip": "fh",
  "chipName": "Free Hit",
  "gw": 1,
  "season": "2026-27",
  "status": "suboptimal",
  "headline": "Suboptimal: Single-Gameweek Gain of +12.4 xP Does Not Outweigh Blank GW Shield",
  "summary": "A specialized 1-week Free Hit squad in GW3 projects 80.2 xP (+12.4 xP above the 67.8 baseline plan). However, holding Free Hit to navigate severe Spring Blank Gameweeks (GW29/GW33) retains an expected relative equity of +24.6 xP.",
  "projectedGainXP": 12.4,
  "historicalAverageGain": 22.8,
  "opportunityCostAssessment": "Free Hit serves as risk mitigation insurance against postponement blanks where baseline squads field fewer than 8 players. Expending in GW3 leaves the team vulnerable to -8 or -12 hit cascades.",
  "solverSettings": {
    "model": "Highs-MILP-v1.7.2",
    "decayFactor": 0.85,
    "horizon": 8,
    "frozenAt": "2026-08-31T08:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:7c92b7a2d488e3fa0895c32b567b489ef0c239458e0a29367d5668b02ea6f381"
  },
  "windowAnalysis": [
    {
      "gw": 1,
      "opponentContext": "Initial Setup (redundant with standard initial pick)",
      "projectedChipEV": 0,
      "projectedBaselineEV": 65.8,
      "netDelta": 0,
      "isRecommendedWindow": false,
      "dgwStatus": false
    },
    {
      "gw": 2,
      "opponentContext": "GW2 Target Squad",
      "projectedChipEV": 86.4,
      "projectedBaselineEV": 75.9,
      "netDelta": 10.5,
      "isRecommendedWindow": false,
      "dgwStatus": false
    },
    {
      "gw": 3,
      "opponentContext": "GW3 Ideal 1-Week Slate (Palmer, Salah, Haaland, Saka)",
      "projectedChipEV": 80.2,
      "projectedBaselineEV": 67.8,
      "netDelta": 12.4,
      "isRecommendedWindow": false,
      "dgwStatus": false
    },
    {
      "gw": 29,
      "opponentContext": "Projected Major FA Cup Blank Gameweek (BGW)",
      "projectedChipEV": 68.2,
      "projectedBaselineEV": 43.1,
      "netDelta": 25.1,
      "isRecommendedWindow": true,
      "dgwStatus": false
    },
    {
      "gw": 34,
      "opponentContext": "Split Blank / Double Gameweek Clash",
      "projectedChipEV": 89.6,
      "projectedBaselineEV": 66.2,
      "netDelta": 23.4,
      "isRecommendedWindow": true,
      "dgwStatus": true
    }
  ],
  "optimalRosterSample": [
    {
      "id": "p_salah_liv",
      "webName": "Salah",
      "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 12.6,
      "projectedMinutes": 90,
      "expectedPoints": 8.1,
      "realisedPoints": null,
      "opponent": "MUN (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "xGI": 0.91,
      "cleanSheetProbability": 0.29
    },
    {
      "id": "p_haaland_mci",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 15.2,
      "projectedMinutes": 89,
      "expectedPoints": 8.85,
      "realisedPoints": null,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2,
      "opponent": "WHU (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "xGI": 0.98,
      "cleanSheetProbability": 0.36
    },
    {
      "id": "p_palmer_che",
      "webName": "Palmer",
      "fullName": "Cole Palmer",
      "team": "CHE",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 10.6,
      "projectedMinutes": 88,
      "expectedPoints": 7.82,
      "realisedPoints": null,
      "isViceCaptain": true,
      "opponent": "CRY (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "xGI": 0.84,
      "cleanSheetProbability": 0.38
    }
  ]
}