{ "season": "2026-27", "gw": 1, "title": "Gameweek 1 Initial Squad Allocation & Captaincy Solver", "deadline": "2026-08-14T17:30:00Z", "status": "completed", "provenance": { "modelVersion": "v2.4.1-rc3", "frozenAt": "2026-08-14T15:30:00Z", "snapshotHash": "sha256:8f4c2e9a1b0d745e99812458c067e2a9b311fc90d813476fa33c79e652a9ef01", "datasetId": "fpl-ep-202627-gw1-freeze", "solverEngine": "Highs-MILP-v1.7.2", "executionTimestamp": "2026-08-14T15:32:11Z", "solverParameters": { "horizonWeeks": 5, "decayRate": 0.85, "hitPenalty": 4, "riskAversion": 0.15, "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8, "maxPlayersPerClub": 3, "teamBudgetCap": 100 }, "isDemoSample": true, "datasetKind": "illustrative-sample" }, "validatedPlan": { "armId": "optimiser", "armName": "Mixed-Integer Linear Solver (ILP)", "formation": "3-5-2", "bank": 0.5, "hitCost": 0, "freeTransfersAvailable": 0, "chipUsed": "none", "captain": { "id": "p_haaland_mci", "webName": "Haaland", "fullName": "Erling Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "cost": 15, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 8.72, "realisedPoints": 13, "isCaptain": true, "multiplier": 2, "opponent": "CHE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.94, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.32, "selectedByPercent": 54.2 }, "viceCaptain": { "id": "p_saka_ars", "webName": "Saka", "fullName": "Bukayo Saka", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "cost": 10, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 7.15, "realisedPoints": 12, "isViceCaptain": true, "opponent": "WOL (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.81, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.48, "selectedByPercent": 33.1 }, "startingXI": [ { "id": "p_raya_ars", "webName": "Raya", "fullName": "David Raya", "team": "ARS", "position": "GKP", "cost": 5.5, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.58, "realisedPoints": 6, "opponent": "WOL (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.51, "selectedByPercent": 24.5 }, { "id": "p_saliba_ars", "webName": "Saliba", "fullName": "William Saliba", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "cost": 6, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.82, "realisedPoints": 6, "opponent": "WOL (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.51, "selectedByPercent": 38.2 }, { "id": "p_gvardiol_mci", "webName": "Gvardiol", "fullName": "Joško Gvardiol", "team": "MCI", "position": "DEF", "cost": 6, "projectedMinutes": 85, "expectedPoints": 4.41, "realisedPoints": 6, "opponent": "CHE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.35, "selectedByPercent": 31.7 }, { "id": "p_munoz_cry", "webName": "Muñoz", "fullName": "Daniel Muñoz", "team": "CRY", "position": "DEF", "cost": 5, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.15, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "BRE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.28, "selectedByPercent": 12.4 }, { "id": "p_saka_ars", "webName": "Saka", "fullName": "Bukayo Saka", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "cost": 10, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 7.15, "realisedPoints": 12, "isViceCaptain": true, "opponent": "WOL (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.81, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.48, "selectedByPercent": 33.1 }, { "id": "p_palmer_che", "webName": "Palmer", "fullName": "Cole Palmer", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "cost": 10.5, "projectedMinutes": 87, "expectedPoints": 6.84, "realisedPoints": 3, "opponent": "MCI (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 4, "xGI": 0.72, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.18, "selectedByPercent": 42.6 }, { "id": "p_son_tot", "webName": "Son", "fullName": "Heung-min Son", "team": "TOT", "position": "MID", "cost": 10, "projectedMinutes": 86, "expectedPoints": 6.32, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "LEI (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.69, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.31, "selectedByPercent": 15.3 }, { "id": "p_eze_cry", "webName": "Eze", "fullName": "Eberechi Eze", "team": "CRY", "position": "MID", "cost": 7, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 5.42, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "BRE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.58, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.28, "selectedByPercent": 34 }, { "id": "p_rogers_avl", "webName": "Rogers", "fullName": "Morgan Rogers", "team": "AVL", "position": "MID", "cost": 5, "projectedMinutes": 82, "expectedPoints": 4.12, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "WHU (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.41, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.25, "selectedByPercent": 14.8 }, { "id": "p_haaland_mci", "webName": "Haaland", "fullName": "Erling Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "cost": 15, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 8.72, "realisedPoints": 13, "isCaptain": true, "multiplier": 2, "opponent": "CHE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.94, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.32, "selectedByPercent": 54.2 }, { "id": "p_isen_new", "webName": "Isak", "fullName": "Alexander Isak", "team": "NEW", "position": "FWD", "cost": 8.5, "projectedMinutes": 86, "expectedPoints": 6.24, "realisedPoints": 5, "opponent": "SOU (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.74, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.41, "selectedByPercent": 57.1 } ], "bench": [ { "id": "p_valdimarsson_bre", "webName": "Valdimarsson", "fullName": "Hákon Valdimarsson", "team": "BRE", "position": "GKP", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 0, "expectedPoints": 0, "realisedPoints": 0, "benchOrder": 1, "opponent": "CRY (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 3 }, { "id": "p_joao_pedro_bha", "webName": "Joao Pedro", "fullName": "Joao Pedro", "team": "BHA", "position": "FWD", "cost": 5.5, "projectedMinutes": 75, "expectedPoints": 4.22, "realisedPoints": 5, "benchOrder": 2, "opponent": "EVE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 }, { "id": "p_barco_bha", "webName": "Barco", "fullName": "Valentín Barco", "team": "BHA", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 20, "expectedPoints": 1.45, "realisedPoints": 0, "benchOrder": 3, "opponent": "EVE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 }, { "id": "p_faes_lei", "webName": "Faes", "fullName": "Wout Faes", "team": "LEI", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 2.1, "realisedPoints": 1, "benchOrder": 4, "opponent": "TOT (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 4 } ], "transfersIn": [], "transfersOut": [], "transferActions": [], "projectedSquadTotalXP": 65.8, "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 74 }, "arms": [ { "id": "baseline", "name": "Template Baseline (Rolling Horizon Heuristic)", "shortLabel": "Baseline Heuristic", "category": "Heuristic", "description": "Greedy point-expectation squad following top 10k consensus ownership and 3-gameweek unweighted rolling EV.", "objectiveEP": 62.4, "realisedPoints": 68, "varianceScore": 14.2, "transfersCount": 0, "hits": 0, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Saka", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-4-3", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0, "realisedRankEffect": "Top 18% percentile", "solverRuntimeMs": 18 }, { "id": "optimiser", "name": "Mixed-Integer Linear Solver (ILP)", "shortLabel": "Optimiser (MILP)", "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)", "description": "5-gameweek rolling horizon formulation with exponential decay factor 0.85, shadow price budget allocation, and transfer buffer preservation.", "objectiveEP": 65.8, "realisedPoints": 74, "varianceScore": 12.8, "transfersCount": 0, "hits": 0, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Saka", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-5-2", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 3.4, "realisedRankEffect": "Top 6% percentile", "solverRuntimeMs": 412 }, { "id": "agent", "name": "Multi-Objective Agent (EV + Rank Ceiling)", "shortLabel": "Agent (Multi-Obj)", "category": "Multi-Objective Agent", "description": "Monte Carlo simulated policy arm penalising ownership correlation in 50/50 splits to maximise upper quartile rank distribution.", "objectiveEP": 66.2, "realisedPoints": 71, "varianceScore": 19.5, "transfersCount": 0, "hits": 0, "captain": "Saka", "viceCaptain": "Haaland", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-5-2", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 3.8, "realisedRankEffect": "Top 11% percentile", "solverRuntimeMs": 1840 } ], "summaryAnalysis": { "executiveSummary": "GW1 solver converged on a Haaland + Saka premium spine with 3-5-2 structure. The MILP optimiser unlocked +3.4 xP over the template baseline primarily through five-man midfield flexibility (investing in Rogers at £5.0m to finance Palmer & Son) and £0.5m bank preservation.", "keyTradeoffs": [ "Haaland vs Salah captaincy: Haaland edged Salah by +0.81 xP due to Chelsea transition concession rates versus Ipswich away variance.", "Three premiums vs balanced squad: Dual-premium (Haaland + Palmer) with Saka outperformed triple-premium structures by +2.1 xP due to shallow £4.5m forward bench drag.", "Bank liquidity: Holding £0.5m in the bank preserved 94% of feasible single-transfer paths for GW2/GW3 price rise spikes." ], "shadowPrices": { "budgetPerMillionXP": 0.42, "transferMarginalValueXP": 1.85, "benchPointsExpectancy": 1.62 }, "divergenceNotes": "Agent arm diverged on captaincy (selecting Saka over Haaland based on Wolves home defensive metrics), delivering higher ceiling variance but yielding 2 points lower in realised return." }, "datasetKind": "illustrative-sample" }