{ "season": "2026-27", "gw": 2, "title": "Gameweek 2 Fixture Targetting: Ipswich Home Allocation", "deadline": "2026-08-24T10:00:00Z", "status": "completed", "provenance": { "modelVersion": "v2.4.1-rc3", "frozenAt": "2026-08-24T08:00:00Z", "snapshotHash": "sha256:d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e324a18b76e1a90c0ef49a9987812bc8f", "datasetId": "fpl-ep-202627-gw2-freeze", "solverEngine": "Highs-MILP-v1.7.2", "executionTimestamp": "2026-08-24T08:03:45Z", "solverParameters": { "horizonWeeks": 5, "decayRate": 0.85, "hitPenalty": 4, "riskAversion": 0.15, "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8, "maxPlayersPerClub": 3, "teamBudgetCap": 100.5 }, "isDemoSample": true, "datasetKind": "illustrative-sample" }, "validatedPlan": { "armId": "optimiser", "armName": "Mixed-Integer Linear Solver (ILP)", "formation": "3-5-2", "bank": 0, "hitCost": 0, "freeTransfersAvailable": 1, "chipUsed": "none", "captain": { "id": "p_haaland_mci", "webName": "Haaland", "fullName": "Erling Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "cost": 15.1, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 10.45, "realisedPoints": 17, "isCaptain": true, "multiplier": 2, "opponent": "IPS (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 1, "xGI": 1.32, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.58, "selectedByPercent": 59.8 }, "viceCaptain": { "id": "p_palmer_che", "webName": "Palmer", "fullName": "Cole Palmer", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "cost": 10.5, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 7.42, "realisedPoints": 17, "isViceCaptain": true, "opponent": "WOL (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.88, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.22, "selectedByPercent": 41.3 }, "startingXI": [ { "id": "p_raya_ars", "webName": "Raya", "fullName": "David Raya", "team": "ARS", "position": "GKP", "cost": 5.5, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.12, "realisedPoints": 8, "opponent": "AVL (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.38, "selectedByPercent": 26.1 }, { "id": "p_saliba_ars", "webName": "Saliba", "fullName": "William Saliba", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "cost": 6, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.05, "realisedPoints": 6, "opponent": "AVL (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.38, "selectedByPercent": 39.5 }, { "id": "p_gvardiol_mci", "webName": "Gvardiol", "fullName": "Joško Gvardiol", "team": "MCI", "position": "DEF", "cost": 6, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 5.82, "realisedPoints": 6, "opponent": "IPS (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 1, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.58, "selectedByPercent": 34.2 }, { "id": "p_munoz_cry", "webName": "Muñoz", "fullName": "Daniel Muñoz", "team": "CRY", "position": "DEF", "cost": 5, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.25, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "WHU (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.34, "selectedByPercent": 13.1 }, { "id": "p_saka_ars", "webName": "Saka", "fullName": "Bukayo Saka", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "cost": 10, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 6.15, "realisedPoints": 6, "opponent": "AVL (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.65, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.38, "selectedByPercent": 35.4 }, { "id": "p_palmer_che", "webName": "Palmer", "fullName": "Cole Palmer", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "cost": 10.5, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 7.42, "realisedPoints": 17, "isViceCaptain": true, "opponent": "WOL (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.88, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.22, "selectedByPercent": 41.3 }, { "id": "p_son_tot", "webName": "Son", "fullName": "Heung-min Son", "team": "TOT", "position": "MID", "cost": 10, "projectedMinutes": 87, "expectedPoints": 7.21, "realisedPoints": 16, "opponent": "EVE (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.82, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.42, "selectedByPercent": 14.7 }, { "id": "p_jota_liv", "webName": "Jota", "fullName": "Diogo Jota", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "cost": 7.5, "projectedMinutes": 78, "expectedPoints": 6.44, "realisedPoints": 5, "opponent": "BRE (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.77, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.44, "selectedByPercent": 21 }, { "id": "p_rogers_avl", "webName": "Rogers", "fullName": "Morgan Rogers", "team": "AVL", "position": "MID", "cost": 5, "projectedMinutes": 85, "expectedPoints": 3.75, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "ARS (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 4, "xGI": 0.36, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.16, "selectedByPercent": 17.2 }, { "id": "p_haaland_mci", "webName": "Haaland", "fullName": "Erling Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "cost": 15.1, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 10.45, "realisedPoints": 17, "isCaptain": true, "multiplier": 2, "opponent": "IPS (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 1, "xGI": 1.32, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.58, "selectedByPercent": 59.8 }, { "id": "p_isak_new", "webName": "Isak", "fullName": "Alexander Isak", "team": "NEW", "position": "FWD", "cost": 8.5, "projectedMinutes": 85, "expectedPoints": 5.92, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "BOU (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.68, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.33, "selectedByPercent": 58.4 } ], "bench": [ { "id": "p_valdimarsson_bre", "webName": "Valdimarsson", "fullName": "Hákon Valdimarsson", "team": "BRE", "position": "GKP", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 0, "expectedPoints": 0, "realisedPoints": 0, "benchOrder": 1, "opponent": "LIV (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 5 }, { "id": "p_joao_pedro_bha", "webName": "Joao Pedro", "fullName": "Joao Pedro", "team": "BHA", "position": "FWD", "cost": 5.5, "projectedMinutes": 80, "expectedPoints": 4.51, "realisedPoints": 7, "benchOrder": 2, "opponent": "MUN (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 3 }, { "id": "p_faes_lei", "webName": "Faes", "fullName": "Wout Faes", "team": "LEI", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 3.1, "realisedPoints": 8, "benchOrder": 3, "opponent": "FUL (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3 }, { "id": "p_barco_bha", "webName": "Barco", "fullName": "Valentín Barco", "team": "BHA", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 0, "expectedPoints": 0, "realisedPoints": 0, "benchOrder": 4, "opponent": "MUN (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 3 } ], "transfersIn": [ { "id": "p_jota_liv", "webName": "Jota", "fullName": "Diogo Jota", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "cost": 7.5, "projectedMinutes": 78, "expectedPoints": 6.44, "realisedPoints": 5, "opponent": "BRE (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 } ], "transfersOut": [ { "id": "p_eze_cry", "webName": "Eze", "fullName": "Eberechi Eze", "team": "CRY", "position": "MID", "cost": 7, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 4.88, "realisedPoints": 2, "opponent": "WHU (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 } ], "transferActions": [ { "playerIn": { "id": "p_jota_liv", "webName": "Jota", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "cost": 7.5, "expectedPoints": 6.44 }, "playerOut": { "id": "p_eze_cry", "webName": "Eze", "team": "CRY", "position": "MID", "sellPrice": 7, "expectedPoints": 4.88 }, "netCostDelta": 0.5, "netXPDelta3GW": 3.2, "rationale": "Direct route into Liverpool's Brentford home fixture. Jota out-expected Eze by +1.56 xP in single-week horizon and +3.2 xP over the 3-GW rolling window." } ], "projectedSquadTotalXP": 75.9, "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 98 }, "arms": [ { "id": "baseline", "name": "Template Baseline (Rolling Horizon Heuristic)", "shortLabel": "Baseline Heuristic", "category": "Heuristic", "description": "Rolling 1 Free Transfer into GW3 to accumulate 2 FTs for the international break buffer.", "objectiveEP": 71.8, "realisedPoints": 89, "varianceScore": 15.6, "transfersCount": 0, "hits": 0, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Son", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-5-2", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0, "realisedRankEffect": "Top 12% percentile", "solverRuntimeMs": 22 }, { "id": "optimiser", "name": "Mixed-Integer Linear Solver (ILP)", "shortLabel": "Optimiser (MILP)", "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)", "description": "Single FT deployment: Eze to Jota using £0.5m liquidity; locks Haaland captaincy vs Ipswich (H).", "objectiveEP": 75.9, "realisedPoints": 98, "varianceScore": 13.9, "transfersCount": 1, "hits": 0, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Palmer", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-5-2", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 4.1, "realisedRankEffect": "Top 1.8% percentile", "solverRuntimeMs": 520 }, { "id": "agent", "name": "Multi-Objective Agent (EV + Rank Ceiling)", "shortLabel": "Agent (Multi-Obj)", "category": "Multi-Objective Agent", "description": "Double transfer with -4 hit: Eze + Rogers to Jota + Minteh, hunting high delta against the template.", "objectiveEP": 74.2, "realisedPoints": 91, "varianceScore": 22.4, "transfersCount": 2, "hits": 1, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Palmer", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-5-2", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 2.4, "realisedRankEffect": "Top 8% percentile", "solverRuntimeMs": 1950 } ], "summaryAnalysis": { "executiveSummary": "GW2 demonstrated the payoff of keeping £0.5m in the bank from GW1. While the baseline heuristic rolled the transfer, the MILP solver spent the FT on Jota (H vs BRE), generating an immediate +4.1 xP model delta. Realised score hit 98 points as Haaland delivered 17 points (34 with armband), Palmer exploded for 17, and Son registered 16.", "keyTradeoffs": [ "Roll transfer vs Eze to Jota: The solver calculated an EV threshold of +1.4 xP needed to justify spending a transfer rather than rolling. Jota's projection cleared this hurdle at +1.56 xP immediate advantage.", "Captaincy consensus: Haaland vs Ipswich (H) yielded an overwhelming 10.45 xP projection with a 58% clean sheet concession probability for the opposition, rendering alternative captain arms mathematically irrational.", "Bench sacrifice: Faes's 8-point haul on the bench was unavoidable under rational pre-match models (£4.0m Leicester defender vs Fulham away had lower EV than Arsenal and City defensive starters)." ], "shadowPrices": { "budgetPerMillionXP": 0.51, "transferMarginalValueXP": 2.15, "benchPointsExpectancy": 1.48 }, "divergenceNotes": "Agent arm attempted an aggressive -4 hit to bring in Minteh alongside Jota. The -4 hit was not recovered (+3 pts gained minus 4 hit = net -1 pt), reinforcing the MILP arm's conservative hit policy." }, "datasetKind": "illustrative-sample" }