{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 10,
  "title": "Gameweek 10 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2025-11-01T13:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2025-11-01T13:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:ca001de957e9eab73fd535b415ecffe5bf2174a1980664c75cff5556a91c298c",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw10-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2025-11-01T13:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 0.8,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 4,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:381",
      "webName": "M.Salah",
      "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 14,
      "projectedMinutes": 87.6,
      "expectedPoints": 7.5,
      "realisedPoints": 10,
      "opponent": "AVL (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 85.3,
      "expectedPoints": 5.81,
      "realisedPoints": 12,
      "opponent": "BUR (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.8,
        "expectedPoints": 3.59,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "TOT (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.3,
        "expectedPoints": 5.81,
        "realisedPoints": 12,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.46,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:568",
        "webName": "Pedro Porro",
        "fullName": "Pedro Porro Sauceda",
        "team": "TOT",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.62,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CHE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 11.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:381",
        "webName": "M.Salah",
        "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 14,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.6,
        "expectedPoints": 7.5,
        "realisedPoints": 10,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:119",
        "webName": "Mbeumo",
        "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.77,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.12,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MCI (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 75.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.95,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.75,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:714",
        "webName": "Woltemade",
        "fullName": "Nick Woltemade",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 6.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.3,
        "expectedPoints": 5.11,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:249",
        "webName": "João Pedro",
        "fullName": "João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.02,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "TOT (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 34.8
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.5,
        "expectedPoints": 2.87,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "ARS (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.6,
        "expectedPoints": 3,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "MCI (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.9,
        "expectedPoints": 2.89,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "BHA (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 30.5,
        "expectedPoints": 1.77,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "TOT (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:119",
        "webName": "Mbeumo",
        "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.77,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:714",
        "webName": "Woltemade",
        "fullName": "Nick Woltemade",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 6.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.3,
        "expectedPoints": 5.11,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:427",
        "webName": "Reijnders",
        "fullName": "Tijjani Reijnders",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5,
        "projectedMinutes": 70.6,
        "expectedPoints": 3.77,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "BOU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.9
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:64",
        "webName": "Watkins",
        "fullName": "Ollie Watkins",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 8.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 64.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.35,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 13
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:119",
          "webName": "Mbeumo",
          "team": "MUN",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 8,
          "expectedPoints": 5.77
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:427",
          "webName": "Reijnders",
          "team": "MCI",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 5.6,
          "expectedPoints": 3.77
        },
        "netCostDelta": 2.4,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      },
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:714",
          "webName": "Woltemade",
          "team": "NEW",
          "position": "FWD",
          "cost": 7.4,
          "expectedPoints": 5.11
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:64",
          "webName": "Watkins",
          "team": "AVL",
          "position": "FWD",
          "sellPrice": 8.6,
          "expectedPoints": 3.35
        },
        "netCostDelta": -1.2,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 1.76,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 67.8,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 65
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 58.6,
      "realisedPoints": 55,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "João Pedro",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "55 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Reijnders → Mbeumo, Watkins → Woltemade",
      "objectiveEP": 67.8,
      "realisedPoints": 65,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 10,
      "realisedRankEffect": "65 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Reijnders → Mbeumo, Watkins → Woltemade",
      "objectiveEP": 67.8,
      "realisedPoints": 65,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 10,
      "realisedRankEffect": "65 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 10. The optimiser captained M.Salah (vice Gabriel), formation 3-5-2, and made 2 transfers (Reijnders out, Mbeumo in; Watkins out, Woltemade in). It scored 65 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 67.8 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Reijnders to Mbeumo; Watkins to Woltemade.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}