{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 22,
  "title": "Gameweek 22 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-01-17T11:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-01-17T11:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:3a0da477d94cd977be4e4017a60303a40af96eb76cedd35c7ea928703b04d9bb",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw22-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-01-17T11:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 0.5,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
      "expectedPoints": 7.55,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "MUN (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 72.6,
      "expectedPoints": 5.46,
      "realisedPoints": 8,
      "opponent": "NFO (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.25,
        "realisedPoints": 11,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.46,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.74,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.07,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "SUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:488",
        "webName": "Bruno G.",
        "fullName": "Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 6.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.7,
        "expectedPoints": 5.19,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 85,
        "expectedPoints": 5.14,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:414",
        "webName": "Foden",
        "fullName": "Phil Foden",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.11,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "MUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 7.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.79,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BHA (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 67.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.57,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
        "expectedPoints": 7.55,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 79,
        "expectedPoints": 4.67,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.3,
        "expectedPoints": 2.35,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.4,
        "expectedPoints": 3.08,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BHA (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 52.1,
        "expectedPoints": 1.74,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "FUL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6.3,
        "expectedPoints": 0.38,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.46,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:488",
        "webName": "Bruno G.",
        "fullName": "Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 6.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.7,
        "expectedPoints": 5.19,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:291",
        "webName": "Tarkowski",
        "fullName": "James Tarkowski",
        "team": "EVE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.34,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:450",
        "webName": "Cunha",
        "fullName": "Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 74.1,
        "expectedPoints": 3.72,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.7
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:5",
          "webName": "Gabriel",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 6.6,
          "expectedPoints": 5.46
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:291",
          "webName": "Tarkowski",
          "team": "EVE",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 5.6,
          "expectedPoints": 3.34
        },
        "netCostDelta": 1,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.12,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      },
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:488",
          "webName": "Bruno G.",
          "team": "NEW",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 7.1,
          "expectedPoints": 5.19
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:450",
          "webName": "Cunha",
          "team": "MUN",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 8.1,
          "expectedPoints": 3.72
        },
        "netCostDelta": -1,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 1.47,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 67.5,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 47
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 49.4,
      "realisedPoints": 71,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Watkins",
      "viceCaptain": "Palmer",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "71 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Tarkowski → Gabriel, Cunha → Bruno G.",
      "objectiveEP": 67.5,
      "realisedPoints": 47,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -24,
      "realisedRankEffect": "47 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Tarkowski → Gabriel, Cunha → Bruno G.",
      "objectiveEP": 67.5,
      "realisedPoints": 47,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -24,
      "realisedRankEffect": "47 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 22. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Gabriel), formation 3-5-2, and made 2 transfers (Tarkowski out, Gabriel in; Cunha out, Bruno G. in). It scored 47 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 67.5 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Tarkowski to Gabriel; Cunha to Bruno G..",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}