{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 23,
  "title": "Gameweek 23 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-01-24T11:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-01-24T11:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:25fb040947dbbdbe68ce4d9e5bf0546343f7361e82e1407579f86f3ba09ded98",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw23-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-01-24T11:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 0.5,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 4,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 86.7,
      "expectedPoints": 7.84,
      "realisedPoints": 1,
      "opponent": "WOL (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:82",
      "webName": "Semenyo",
      "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8,
      "projectedMinutes": 86.4,
      "expectedPoints": 6.01,
      "realisedPoints": 8,
      "opponent": "WOL (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
      "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.4,
        "expectedPoints": 3.33,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 75.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.81,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.63,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 70.4,
        "expectedPoints": 3.41,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "CHE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.4,
        "expectedPoints": 6.01,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.7,
        "expectedPoints": 5.59,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:414",
        "webName": "Foden",
        "fullName": "Phil Foden",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 69.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.94,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 7.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.5,
        "expectedPoints": 4.7,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "NEW (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:488",
        "webName": "Bruno G.",
        "fullName": "Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 6.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.7,
        "expectedPoints": 7.84,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.1,
        "expectedPoints": 5.3,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NFO (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.3,
        "expectedPoints": 3.28,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.6,
        "expectedPoints": 3.22,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 67.3,
        "expectedPoints": 2.12,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "EVE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6.3,
        "expectedPoints": 0.36,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [],
    "transfersOut": [],
    "transferActions": [],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 71.2,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 41
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 51.4,
      "realisedPoints": 67,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Watkins",
      "viceCaptain": "Tarkowski",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "67 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 71.2,
      "realisedPoints": 41,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Semenyo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -26,
      "realisedRankEffect": "41 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 71.2,
      "realisedPoints": 41,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Semenyo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -26,
      "realisedRankEffect": "41 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 23. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Semenyo), formation 3-5-2, and made no transfers. It scored 41 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 71.2 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "The optimiser held the squad this week.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}