{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 26,
  "title": "Gameweek 26 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-02-10T18:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-02-10T18:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:1a0a103d66af0be79f8120d6c20698ddd04dfed6892409d1483b2e8cf428a930",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw26-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-02-10T18:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "4-4-2",
    "bank": 0,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 153.6,
      "expectedPoints": 11.38,
      "realisedPoints": 7,
      "opponent": "WOL (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:21",
      "webName": "Rice",
      "fullName": "Declan Rice",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 7.2,
      "projectedMinutes": 167.2,
      "expectedPoints": 10.87,
      "realisedPoints": 14,
      "opponent": "WOL (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 23.3,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.2,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 153.6,
        "expectedPoints": 11.38,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 166,
        "expectedPoints": 10.04,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 85,
        "expectedPoints": 4.97,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.69,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "FUL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 167.2,
        "expectedPoints": 10.87,
        "realisedPoints": 14,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.87,
        "realisedPoints": 14,
        "opponent": "FUL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.24,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:382",
        "webName": "Wirtz",
        "fullName": "Florian Wirtz",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 77.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.62,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "SUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 75,
        "expectedPoints": 6.63,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "FUL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 81,
        "expectedPoints": 4.47,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "ARS (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.7,
        "expectedPoints": 2.63,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:329",
        "webName": "Wilson",
        "fullName": "Harry Wilson",
        "team": "FUL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.92,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MCI (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.4,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.9,
        "expectedPoints": 2.45,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6.1,
        "expectedPoints": 0.38,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 166,
        "expectedPoints": 10.04,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 83,
        "expectedPoints": 3.24,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "EVE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:8",
          "webName": "J.Timber",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 6.4,
          "expectedPoints": 10.04
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:72",
          "webName": "Senesi",
          "team": "BOU",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 4.6,
          "expectedPoints": 3.24
        },
        "netCostDelta": 1.8,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 6.8,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 91.6,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 68
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 58.8,
      "realisedPoints": 47,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "M.Salah",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "47 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Senesi → J.Timber",
      "objectiveEP": 91.6,
      "realisedPoints": 68,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Gabriel",
      "viceCaptain": "Rice",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 21,
      "realisedRankEffect": "68 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Senesi → J.Timber",
      "objectiveEP": 91.6,
      "realisedPoints": 68,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Gabriel",
      "viceCaptain": "Rice",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 21,
      "realisedRankEffect": "68 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 26. The optimiser captained Gabriel (vice Rice), formation 4-4-2, and made one transfer (Senesi out, J.Timber in). It scored 68 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 91.6 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Senesi to J.Timber.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}