{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 37,
  "title": "Gameweek 37 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-05-15T17:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-05-15T17:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:d630606c9b32183386f96cd4972587a63022cb27329249ae4f2f9613881c969c",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw37-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-05-15T17:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 0.6,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 1,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 79.7,
      "expectedPoints": 6.22,
      "realisedPoints": 6,
      "opponent": "BUR (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 77.6,
      "expectedPoints": 6.14,
      "realisedPoints": 9,
      "opponent": "BOU (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:670",
        "webName": "Roefs",
        "fullName": "Robin Roefs",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 85,
        "expectedPoints": 3.26,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "EVE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.7,
        "expectedPoints": 6.22,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "BUR (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.65,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:373",
        "webName": "Virgil",
        "fullName": "Virgil van Dijk",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 89.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.19,
        "realisedPoints": 14,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 31.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.22,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.14,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "BUR (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.42,
        "realisedPoints": 12,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:783",
        "webName": "Groß",
        "fullName": "Pascal Groß",
        "team": "BHA",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.6,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "LEE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:267",
        "webName": "Sarr",
        "fullName": "Ismaïla Sarr",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 6.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 60,
        "expectedPoints": 2.94,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "BRE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 77.6,
        "expectedPoints": 6.14,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:624",
        "webName": "Bowen",
        "fullName": "Jarrod Bowen",
        "team": "WHU",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.27,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NEW (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.5
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 75.9,
        "expectedPoints": 1.81,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "ARS (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 65.4,
        "expectedPoints": 2.34,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 34.3,
        "expectedPoints": 2.21,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "BUR (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 8.1,
        "expectedPoints": 0.5,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [],
    "transfersOut": [],
    "transferActions": [],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 58.5,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 70
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 55.1,
      "realisedPoints": 63,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "Tarkowski",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "63 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 58.5,
      "realisedPoints": 70,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Gabriel",
      "viceCaptain": "Haaland",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 7,
      "realisedRankEffect": "70 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 58.5,
      "realisedPoints": 70,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Gabriel",
      "viceCaptain": "Haaland",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 7,
      "realisedRankEffect": "70 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 37. The optimiser captained Gabriel (vice Haaland), formation 3-5-2, and made no transfers. It scored 70 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 58.5 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "The optimiser held the squad this week.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}