{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 38,
  "title": "Gameweek 38 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-05-24T13:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-05-24T13:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:36cfad56146596141a32b940a7669afa0e78925d0786bd948d21b268d51672e8",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw38-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-05-24T13:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "4-4-2",
    "bank": 0.8,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 2,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 75.4,
      "expectedPoints": 6.42,
      "realisedPoints": 0,
      "opponent": "AVL (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 79.9,
      "expectedPoints": 5.89,
      "realisedPoints": 1,
      "opponent": "CRY (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:670",
        "webName": "Roefs",
        "fullName": "Robin Roefs",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.1,
        "expectedPoints": 3.64,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CHE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.89,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.92,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:373",
        "webName": "Virgil",
        "fullName": "Virgil van Dijk",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 89.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.73,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 31.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:6",
        "webName": "Saliba",
        "fullName": "William Saliba",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.42,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.7,
        "expectedPoints": 5.39,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.85,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:783",
        "webName": "Groß",
        "fullName": "Pascal Groß",
        "team": "BHA",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.6,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 75.4,
        "expectedPoints": 6.42,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:624",
        "webName": "Bowen",
        "fullName": "Jarrod Bowen",
        "team": "WHU",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.54,
        "realisedPoints": 12,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.5
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 56.2,
        "expectedPoints": 1.98,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.3,
        "expectedPoints": 3.01,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:267",
        "webName": "Sarr",
        "fullName": "Ismaïla Sarr",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 6.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 60.4,
        "expectedPoints": 2.83,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "ARS (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 5.8,
        "expectedPoints": 0.32,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "SUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:6",
        "webName": "Saliba",
        "fullName": "William Saliba",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.42,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.1
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.64,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "MCI (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 33.5,
        "expectedPoints": 2.04,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:387",
          "webName": "Szoboszlai",
          "team": "LIV",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 7,
          "expectedPoints": 4.59
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:47",
          "webName": "Rogers",
          "team": "AVL",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 7.4,
          "expectedPoints": 3.64
        },
        "netCostDelta": -0.4,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 0.95,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      },
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:6",
          "webName": "Saliba",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 6.2,
          "expectedPoints": 4.42
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:8",
          "webName": "J.Timber",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 6,
          "expectedPoints": 2.04
        },
        "netCostDelta": 0.2,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.38,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 59.8,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 30
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 47.2,
      "realisedPoints": 76,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "Palmer",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "76 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Rogers → Szoboszlai, J.Timber → Saliba",
      "objectiveEP": 59.8,
      "realisedPoints": 30,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -46,
      "realisedRankEffect": "30 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Rogers → Szoboszlai, J.Timber → Saliba",
      "objectiveEP": 59.8,
      "realisedPoints": 30,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -46,
      "realisedRankEffect": "30 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 38. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Gabriel), formation 4-4-2, and made 2 transfers (Rogers out, Szoboszlai in; J.Timber out, Saliba in). It scored 30 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 59.8 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Rogers to Szoboszlai; J.Timber to Saliba.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}