{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 4,
  "title": "Gameweek 4 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2025-09-13T10:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2025-09-13T10:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:ad5bce4cd7815a5db9d406889a9f731c9b593665e505fc9883c932b19344bf75",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw4-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2025-09-13T10:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 1.8,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 3,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:381",
      "webName": "M.Salah",
      "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 14,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
      "expectedPoints": 8.94,
      "realisedPoints": 9,
      "opponent": "BUR (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:384",
      "webName": "Gakpo",
      "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 80.9,
      "expectedPoints": 5.84,
      "realisedPoints": 3,
      "opponent": "BUR (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 5.6,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.1,
        "expectedPoints": 4.01,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BRE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:291",
        "webName": "Tarkowski",
        "fullName": "James Tarkowski",
        "team": "EVE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.8,
        "expectedPoints": 3.57,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:568",
        "webName": "Pedro Porro",
        "fullName": "Pedro Porro Sauceda",
        "team": "TOT",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.8,
        "expectedPoints": 3.21,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 11.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.5,
        "expectedPoints": 3.14,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:381",
        "webName": "M.Salah",
        "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 14,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
        "expectedPoints": 8.94,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.84,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.11,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:427",
        "webName": "Reijnders",
        "fullName": "Tijjani Reijnders",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.41,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.9
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:449",
        "webName": "B.Fernandes",
        "fullName": "Bruno Borges Fernandes",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 10.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.1,
        "expectedPoints": 3.88,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MCI (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 48
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:249",
        "webName": "João Pedro",
        "fullName": "João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.55,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "BRE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 34.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:64",
        "webName": "Watkins",
        "fullName": "Ollie Watkins",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 8.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 81,
        "expectedPoints": 4.83,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "EVE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 13
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 77.9,
        "expectedPoints": 2.65,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 77.3,
        "expectedPoints": 2.64,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:506",
        "webName": "Murillo",
        "fullName": "Murillo Costa dos Santos",
        "team": "NFO",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.8,
        "expectedPoints": 2.6,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "ARS (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 1.8,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 7.6,
        "expectedPoints": 0.38,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.84,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.11,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:235",
        "webName": "Palmer",
        "fullName": "Cole Palmer",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 10.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 41.8,
        "expectedPoints": 2.91,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "BRE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:517",
        "webName": "Anderson",
        "fullName": "Elliot Anderson",
        "team": "NFO",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.3,
        "expectedPoints": 2.73,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "ARS (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 9.4
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:384",
          "webName": "Gakpo",
          "team": "LIV",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 7.6,
          "expectedPoints": 5.84
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:235",
          "webName": "Palmer",
          "team": "CHE",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 10.4,
          "expectedPoints": 2.91
        },
        "netCostDelta": -2.8,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.93,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      },
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:387",
          "webName": "Szoboszlai",
          "team": "LIV",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 6.5,
          "expectedPoints": 5.11
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:517",
          "webName": "Anderson",
          "team": "NFO",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 5.5,
          "expectedPoints": 2.73
        },
        "netCostDelta": 1,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.38,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 63.2,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 57
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 61.5,
      "realisedPoints": 62,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "João Pedro",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "62 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Palmer → Gakpo, Anderson → Szoboszlai",
      "objectiveEP": 63.2,
      "realisedPoints": 57,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Gakpo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -5,
      "realisedRankEffect": "57 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Palmer → Gakpo, Anderson → Szoboszlai",
      "objectiveEP": 63.2,
      "realisedPoints": 57,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Gakpo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -5,
      "realisedRankEffect": "57 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 4. The optimiser captained M.Salah (vice Gakpo), formation 3-5-2, and made 2 transfers (Palmer out, Gakpo in; Anderson out, Szoboszlai in). It scored 57 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 63.2 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Palmer to Gakpo; Anderson to Szoboszlai.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}