High-ceiling approach, FPL Gameweek 2 (2026/27)
High-ceiling for FPL 2026/27 Gameweek 2 projected 74.2 points, +2.4 projected points versus the template. Captain: Haaland. Formation: 3-5-2. It scored 91 points.
Double transfer with -4 hit: Eze + Rogers to Jota + Minteh, hunting high delta against the template.
Cutoff 24 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCIllustrative samplesha256:d41d8cd9…bc8fDownload snapshotIllustrative sample
- Projected
- 74.2 xP
- vs Template
- +2.4
- Points
- 91
- Risk (spread of simulated points)
- 22.4
Captain candidates
Selected: Haaland
| Candidate | Fixture | Mean xP | 90th percentile | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland (MCI) · selected | IPS (H) | 10.45 | 15.4 | 17 | Dominant volume baseline, highest penalty equity in league (xGI > 0.90). |
| Palmer (CHE) | WOL (A) | 7.42 | 14.1 | 17 | Direct set-piece and penalty monopolist with high open-play assist conversion. |
| Saka (ARS) | AVL (A) | 6.15 | 13.8 | 6 | Elite home game metrics, corner duties, high conversion against low blocks. |
| Salah (LIV) | BRE (H) | 8.35 | 14.8 | 10 | Alternative premium anchor; excluded from base squad due to £12.5m structural trade-offs. |
Constraints
Binding means the limit was tight; slack means there was room left.
| Constraint | Expression | Value | Slack | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Squad Budget | Σ (c_i * x_i) ≤ B | £99.9m / £100.0m | £0.1m | Slack |
| Squad Roster Cardinality | Σ x_i = 15 | 15 players | 0 | Binding |
| Starting XI Formation Min Defenders | Σ (pos_DEF * s_i) ≥ 3 | 3 defenders | 0 | Binding |
| Club Roster Limit | Σ (club_k * x_i) ≤ 3 ∀ k | ARS: 3, MCI: 2, CHE: 1 | ARS binding (3/3) | Binding |
| Transfer Hit Boundary | Penalty = 4.0 * max(0, T - FT) | Hits: 1 | 0 | Binding |
| Expected Minutes Filter | E[min_i] ≥ 60 for Starting XI | Min starting: 75 min | 15 min margin | Slack |
What would change the plan
Haaland Minutes Reduction (Down to 65 min)
E[min] drops from 89 to 65
Shifts captaincy to Palmer; reallocates £2.0m to upgrade bench
-2.30 xP
Arsenal Clean Sheet Probability Drift (-15%)
Raya + Saliba CS expectation reduced to 34%
Downgrade Saliba to Robinson; upgrade Rogers to Semenyo
-1.10 xP
Zero Bank Policy (Deploy All £0.5m Bank)
Hard budget equality constraint B_used = 100.0
Upgrade Muñoz (£5.0m) to Porro (£5.5m)
+0.65 xP
How to verify
High-ceiling approach, FPL Gameweek 2 (2026/27) was written to a JSON snapshot at 24 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC and hashed with SHA-256 (sha256:d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e324a18b76e1a90c0ef49a9987812bc8f). Download the snapshot to inspect the frozen inputs. The freeze rule is described in Methods.