FPL 2025/26 reconstructive replay
A full 38-gameweek reconstructive replay from the FPL lab. Three approaches run on rebuilt pre-deadline inputs, then scored on official points. This is not a live two-hour freeze.
- Optimiser
- 2010 pts
- Template
- 1990 pts
- Same-state evidence
- 2010 pts
- Chips played
- None
What this season shows
Same-state evidence copied the optimiser in all 38 gameweek folders, so the evidence column equals 2,010. An exploratory post-season fork that kept a different squad from Gameweek 12 finished 2075 hybrid net (+65 from GW12–38). Direct same-state evidence contributed only +16 points. The evidence fork is an exploratory historical path recovered after outcomes were known. It is not a preregistered live freeze and is not a headline skill claim.
No chip was used. In Gameweek 34 both the optimiser (28 net) and the template (33 net) took an 8-point hit in a blank. Read the case.
Download season JSON · Season review
Gameweeks
38 weeks| GW | Captain | Plan | Projected | Opt | Template | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 | Palmer | 3-5-2 · Hold | — | 56 | 56 | sha256:5bdbb4bf…39ab |
| GW2 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 60.0 | 59 | 59 | sha256:b4893944…713a |
| GW3 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 63.4 | 59 | 59 | sha256:dc98975a…2e2e |
| GW4 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · 2 tr | 63.2 | 57 | 62 | sha256:ad5bce4c…bf75 |
| GW5 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 64.8 | 46 | 49 | sha256:9e9c4872…e483 |
| GW6 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 66.5 | 31 | 35 | sha256:4e3bbb78…8931 |
| GW7 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 65.0 | 40 | 32 | sha256:3113a56c…e37f |
| GW8 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · 2 tr | 66.7 | 52 | 36 | sha256:37a129bb…81d7 |
| GW9 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 67.8 | 53 | 54 | sha256:83312c51…9617 |
| GW10 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · 2 tr | 67.8 | 65 | 55 | sha256:ca001de9…298c |
| GW11 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 67.7 | 35 | 44 | sha256:a1519482…0aeb |
| GW12 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · Hold | 73.3 | 29 | 39 | sha256:3328be88…4e75 |
| GW13 | M.Salah | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 67.2 | 36 | 32 | sha256:49b5ea37…c4dc |
| GW14 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 2 tr | 68.5 | 63 | 45 | sha256:dbb77519…09bc |
| GW15 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 68.1 | 55 | 78 | sha256:446ba2ce…ed74 |
| GW16 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 69.2 | 59 | 56 | sha256:6c274351…9bb4 |
| GW17 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 70.6 | 88 | 44 | sha256:76667596…e8be |
| GW18 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 71.4 | 33 | 64 | sha256:aa407d93…7da4 |
| GW19 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 69.6 | 36 | 44 | sha256:48651a0c…8706 |
| GW20 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 66.2 | 65 | 43 | sha256:6b3e3c4a…07b9 |
| GW21 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 69.5 | 55 | 38 | sha256:6b8ac10a…a8b7 |
| GW22 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 2 tr | 67.5 | 47 | 71 | sha256:3a0da477…d9bb |
| GW23 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · Hold | 71.2 | 41 | 67 | sha256:25fb0409…ed98 |
| GW24 | Haaland | 4-4-2 · 1 tr | 67.4 | 60 | 61 | sha256:dae38723…630c |
| GW25 | Gabriel | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 67.0 | 58 | 66 | sha256:5bb74b6f…bbc5 |
| GW26 | Gabriel | 4-4-2 · 1 tr | 91.6 | 68 | 47 | sha256:1a0a103d…a930 |
| GW27 | Haaland | 4-4-2 · Hold | 72.7 | 43 | 39 | sha256:124d9dd3…d4f5 |
| GW28 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 69.9 | 67 | 35 | sha256:a9c0f6d6…1aac |
| GW29 | Semenyo | 4-4-2 · 1 tr | 67.5 | 53 | 98 | sha256:af439a8b…1aa1 |
| GW30 | Haaland | 4-4-2 · 1 tr | 68.0 | 45 | 47 | sha256:54349e56…2ad5 |
| GW31 | B.Fernandes | 3-5-2 · 3 tr | 53.6 | 63 | 68 | sha256:d5b0ba9e…34b3 |
| GW32 | B.Fernandes | 3-5-2 · 1 tr | 64.4 | 53 | 37 | sha256:a63af706…d50b |
| GW33 | Haaland | 4-4-2 · 3 tr | 100.4 | 79 | 61 | sha256:6e0ea922…3a87 |
| GW34 | B.Fernandes | 3-4-3 · −8 hit · 3 tr | 35.6 | 28 | 33 | sha256:b457f602…0659 |
| GW35 | B.Fernandes | 3-5-2 · Hold | 60.4 | 44 | 40 | sha256:ffc043e7…03c9 |
| GW36 | Haaland | 3-5-2 · 2 tr | 87.3 | 89 | 57 | sha256:a19ad730…e7a5 |
| GW37 | Gabriel | 3-5-2 · Hold | 58.5 | 70 | 63 | sha256:d630606c…969c |
| GW38 | Haaland | 4-4-2 · 2 tr | 59.8 | 30 | 76 | sha256:36cfad56…72e8 |
Did the evidence approach beat the optimiser in 2025/26?
Not on the published per-week plans. Same-state evidence matched the optimiser every week. The +65 figure is an exploratory forked squad path from Gameweek 12, recovered after outcomes were known.
Were any chips played?
No. See the chip hubs and the Gameweek 34 hit case for what that gap means.